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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president commented to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would constitute assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is near agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not received the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. A key demand involves Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he added.